September 2025 marked a turning point in the global cod trade.
According to the Norwegian Seafood Council (NSC), Vietnam imported 672 tons of Norwegian frozen Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) — a 175% year-on-year surge, surpassing China’s 641 tons, which fell 19% year-on-year.
For the first time, Vietnam has become the largest buyer of Norwegian frozen cod, signaling a dramatic shift in seafood processing and re-export dynamics.
US Tariffs Drive a Global Realignment in Cod Processing
This historic change stems from US-China trade tensions and tariff disparities that have disrupted long-standing supply chains.
Since July 2025, the United States has imposed tariffs of 25–40% on Chinese-processed cod products, cutting deep into China’s seafood re-export model centered around cities like Qingdao and Dalian.
In contrast, Vietnam now enjoys a favorable 20% export tariff to the US — half of China’s rate. This advantage, combined with lower labor costs, has made Vietnam the new low-tax processing hub for Norwegian frozen cod.
“Vietnam’s lower tariffs and cost advantages have made it a strategic processing and transit base for Norwegian cod,” said Eivind Brækkån, whitefish analyst at the Norwegian Seafood Council.
Asia remains the core export destination for Norwegian frozen cod. But the market structure is evolving — Vietnam is rising, while China is redefining its role in the cod value chain.
Vietnam’s Rapid Growth in Seafood Processing
Vietnam’s success in replacing China is no coincidence.
Over the past few years, the country has heavily invested in modern seafood industrial parks in Ho Chi Minh City, Can Tho, and Ca Mau, enhancing:
- Processing capacity and automation
- Cold chain logistics
- Export certification and traceability systems
According to VASEP (Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers), Vietnam’s whitefish exports are projected to rise 40% year-on-year in 2025, while exports to the US could jump over 60%.
Vietnam is effectively replicating China’s successful “processing and re-export” model, but with lower costs and more favorable tariff conditions.
China’s Transition to a Premium Cod Consumer Market
While Vietnam strengthens its processing base, China is shifting its focus from re-exporting to consuming.
With advanced cold storage, logistics, and financing infrastructure, China remains a vital player in the supply chain — but its role is transforming.
Domestic demand for high-quality frozen and fresh cod is increasing as China evolves into a high-end seafood consumer market, driven by a growing middle class and premium dining trends.
Norway’s Strategy: From Exporter to Price Setter
Norway’s fresh farmed cod exports reached 1,189 tons in September 2025, accounting for 59% of the total value of fresh cod exports — a record high.
This shift reflects Norway’s broader ambition: to move up the value chain and become a price-setting authority rather than just a resource exporter.
Meanwhile, rising cod prices are reshaping demand:
- Clipfish exports rose 35% year-on-year to NOK 891 million in September.
- Portugal remains a stable market for traditional clipfish.
- Latin American markets, such as Brazil, are turning to substitutes due to cost pressures.
The New Global Cod Trade Landscape
The global whitefish industry is entering a new era:
- US tariffs have triggered a structural realignment in seafood trade.
- Vietnam is emerging as the low-tariff hub for Norwegian cod processing and exports.
- China is transforming into a premium consumption market.
- Norway is diversifying its export destinations while consolidating its position as a high-value producer.
With potential quota tightening in the Arctic and Barents Seas, global competition for cod supply is expected to intensify throughout 2026.
Key Takeaways for the Seafood Industry
- Vietnam’s tariff advantage is reshaping global supply chains.
- China’s role is shifting from factory to consumer.
- Norwegian exports continue to rise in both value and influence.
- Tariffs, logistics, and costs will determine future whitefish competitiveness.
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