Qingdao, October 31 — The Qingdao Fisheries Expo concluded successfully, marking another milestone in the global seafood trade calendar. Amid strong buyer interest and lively discussions, international suppliers revealed key insights into the Chinese seafood market. Here’s a summary of the most critical updates:
I. Ecuadorian White Shrimp Prices: Stable or Rising, No Drop Expected
Ecuadorian white shrimp prices are unlikely to fall in the short term. On the contrary, suppliers expect either continued stability or slight upward movement.
This week, Ecuadorian exporters collectively raised shrimp prices by $0.20/kg for the Chinese market — despite buyers’ hopes for a correction.
Several factors are driving this firmness:
- The Ecuadorian government’s removal of fuel subsidies has raised production costs by 1–3 cents per kilogram.
- Shrimp production is projected to grow by 15% in 2025, peaking between April and May.
- Meanwhile, Chinese aquaculture output remains lower than last year, and feed costs continue to climb.
With no capacity expansion in Central America, Thailand, or Vietnam, and India facing tariff challenges, Ecuador remains the world’s most stable shrimp supplier. Strong demand from the U.S. and European markets ensures that shrimp raw material prices will stay high through early 2025.
II. Global Basa Fish Supply Shortage to Continue Until Q2 2026
The basa fish supply crisis continues, with no relief expected until the second quarter of 2026.
Severe typhoons and heavy rainfall in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta have drastically reduced fry survival rates. The result: lower yields and tighter supply of finished basa fish in the coming months.
Given the 8–10 month farming cycle, farmers are still recovering, and larger-sized basa fish will be especially scarce.
Analysts predict further price increases, though the exact range remains uncertain.
III. Cod Becomes a “Luxury Good” in the Chinese Market
The Atlantic cod market in China has entered a new phase — cod has effectively become a premium seafood product.
At the Qingdao Expo, Norwegian suppliers once again raised prices, with 1–2.5kg H&G Atlantic cod now reaching $10,500/ton.
Several macro factors explain this surge:
- The Barents Sea cod quota will shrink again next year, guaranteeing continued tight supply.
- It typically takes six months for raw material prices to affect retail markets.
- Pollock, once an affordable alternative, has also jumped by $5,000/ton — dramatically reshaping seafood price structures.
Song Peng, a leading Chinese importer, notes that pollock demand in China is rising as more high-quality surimi products enter the market. European buyers are also returning, suggesting continued upward pressure on raw material prices.
IV. Japanese Seafood Imports: Gradual Return After Policy Shifts
China has officially agreed to resume imports of Japanese seafood, but the real comeback will take time.
While three Japanese companies passed registration in July 2025, the approval process has since stalled. Normally, such re-registrations take about a month, but the recent change in Japan’s prime minister has delayed policy implementation.
Most experts predict that meaningful volumes of Japanese seafood will return to China only after the Spring Festival in 2026.
Summary: Tight Global Supply, Rising Costs, Shifting Demand
The overall takeaway from this year’s Qingdao Fisheries Expo is clear:
- Shrimp prices will remain firm, driven by production costs and global demand.
- Basa supply will stay limited into 2026.
- Cod and pollock are entering a premium price era.
- Japanese seafood will re-enter the market slowly.
As China remains the world’s largest seafood importer, these shifts will heavily influence pricing strategies, sourcing decisions, and consumer behavior across the seafood industry.
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