Strong Business Activity Amid Tariff Uncertainty and Supply Chain Risk

The Seafood Expo Global 2026 delivered strong commercial energy, with high booth traffic and active deal-making across the exhibition floor.

However, beneath the surface, the seafood industry remains cautious that operating under tariff uncertainty, shorter planning horizons, and increasing pressure to diversify sourcing strategies.

Key Industry Themes from SEG 2026: Busy, but cautious

1. Strong Commercial Engagement, but Not a Bull Market

1. High visitor turnout and active meetings
2. Companies focused on maintaining relationships and securing orders
3. Less “growth optimism,” more defensive positioning.

2. Tariff Uncertainty Dominates Strategic Thinking

1. Industry leaders continue to highlight risks tied to U.S. trade policy.
2. Unpredictable tariff changes
3. Difficulty in long-term pricing and contracts
4. Increased hesitation from buyers

This uncertainty is reshaping how companies plan procurement, pricing, and partnerships.

3. Supply Chain Diversification Accelerates

Supply chain diversification is clearly accelerating, as reflected in the stronger presence of key producing countries such as India, Ecuador, Vietnam, China, and Greece. 

This shift highlights a broader industry move toward multi-origin sourcing strategies, aimed at reducing dependence on any single region and improving resilience against trade disruptions, price volatility, and supply risks.

Market Sentiment: Active but Highly Defensive

While attendance and engagement were strong, companies are not behaving as if the market is in an expansion phase. 

Instead, most are using the event to defend market share, explore alternative supply routes, and prepare for ongoing pricing and policy volatility. The overall tone suggests that the industry is repositioning rather than celebrating.

Hormuz Crisis: A Multi-Layer Cost Shock for Seafood

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is increasingly seen as more than a logistics issue—it is a systemic cost shock affecting the entire seafood value chain.

Primary Impact Channels

1. Fuel: Higher diesel prices increase fishing costs
2. Freight: Shipping rates and transit times rise
3. Insurance: Risk premiums increase
4. Timing: Delays threaten perishable cargo

Impact on the Seafood Industry

1. Fishing Operations
2. Reduced days at sea
3. Lower catch volumes
4. Fleets adjusting or pausing operations
5. Logistics and Cold Chain
6. Rerouting leads to congestion and delays
7. Higher spoilage risk for fresh and frozen products
8. Increased reliance on robust cold-chain systems

Pricing Pressure

• Upward pressure on imported seafood prices
• Premium categories most affected
• Retailers face margin compression
• Food Security Risks

Regions heavily dependent on imports, especially Gulf markets, face:

• Supply tightening
• Rising consumer prices
• Competitive Impact: A Structural Divide Emerging

The crisis is accelerating a gap between strong and weak players

In the 2026 seafood market, a clear divide is emerging between companies that can adapt and those that struggle under pressure. Winners are typically those with diversified sourcing strategies, strong logistics and cold-chain control, and the flexibility to adjust routing as conditions change. 

These capabilities allow them to absorb disruptions and maintain supply stability. In contrast, small-scale fishers, exporters operating on thin margins, and businesses heavily dependent on single routes or markets are increasingly at risk, as they lack the resilience to manage rising costs and sudden disruptions. 

Overall, cost pressure and uncertainty have become the defining characteristics of the global seafood market in 2026, reshaping competition and accelerating the need for strategic flexibility. 

Our insights from Seafood Expo Global 2026 is clear:

The seafood industry is no longer constrained by demand, but increasingly shaped by cost pressures, risk exposure, and structural uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz crisis underscores how deeply seafood markets are now influenced by external forces such as energy prices, geopolitics, logistics infrastructure, and trade policy. 

In practical terms, this translates into higher operating costs, more volatile pricing, and faster, often reactive strategic shifts across the supply chain. 

In this environment, the defining advantage is no longer scale or even access to resources—adaptability has become the key competitive edge in global seafood trade.

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