Inflation, escalating energy, raw material, and feed expenses are among the factors shaping the global salmon market. Additionally, pivotal tax-related events could potentially steer the industry’s trajectory in the near future. While on the consumer front, salmon remains a top choice among fishery products. That maintains its popularity despite notable price hikes observed during the review period. Forecasts indicate a stabilization in production variations for 2023, with a potential up to 4% global increase.
Salmon Production Situation
Atlantic Salmon Production
Market insights into salmon supply reveal that global salmon market shall expand at a CAGR of 3.9% from 2022 to 2027. Although the global Atlantic salmon supply in 2022 reached approximately 2,863,700 tonnes, showing a slight decline of 1.1% in comparison to 2021. Among that, the primary producer, Norway, contributed 1,511,100 tonnes, reflecting a decrease of 1.4% compared to the previous year.
Several months after its initial proposal and the ensuing domestic and international uproar, the Norwegian government has disclosed and updated the specifics of its salmon tax proposal. That advocates a tax rate of 25% for fish farming conducted in coastal waters. According to Norges Bank, the global supply of farmed salmon will be unusual from 2023 to 2025. In the past few months, the industry has been too focused on the issue of the resource tax and ignored the essence of supply and demand balance. The growth of salmon production will be very slow, and there is less possibility to see a market rebound.
As for the salmon production in Chile, it holds substantial importance as a major job provider and stands as the country’s second-largest export sector, trailing only the mining industry. During the first six months of 2023, salmon accounted for 15.5% of Chile’s total non-mining exports by value, as per the council’s estimations. This performance slightly exceeded the 2017 to 2022 average of 14.9%.
Pacific Salmon Production
Russia’s Pacific salmon catch has been bumper this year, especially pink salmon. By September 11, 2023, the catch of Pacific salmon exceeded 580,000 tonnes, which is 14% higher than the level in the same period of 2021 and almost 2.4 times that of last year. Furthermore, Russia’s pink salmon harvest has exceeded preseason forecasts by nearly 100,000 metric tonnes, resulting in a total Russian salmon harvest exceeding 550,000 metric tonnes – the highest since 2018.
Shifting to Alaska, by August 12, 2023, Pacific salmon production was 279,804 tons, including 110,005 tons of pink salmon, a year-on-year increase of 18%. The peak of the Pink Salmon run has passed, as over 130 million Pink Salmon have already been harvested, surpassing preseason expectations.
Salmon Export in 2023
Atlantic Salmon Export
Noteworthy shifts in the global seafood trade dynamics have emerged in recent years. China is the primary seafood exporter, but it’s also transitioning to becoming a net importer. For Atlantic salmon, Norway and Chile have ascended to the position of the leading exporters.
Norwegian seafood exports have achieved outstanding results. Norwegian seafood export volume in the first half of 2023 reached 1.31 million tons, and export value reached 82.3 billion Norwegian kroner, a record high. Also, the majority of Norwegian exports now revolve around salmon, constituting over 70% of their total export revenue. Among them, Norwegian salmon performed strongly in the Chinese market. For example, in the first half of 2023, Norwegian salmon exports to China reached 20,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 67%. The export value reached NOK 2.91 billion, a year-on-year increase of 95.3%. And it accounts for 67.5% of the total Norwegian seafood exports to China. Compared with the same period in 2022, exports increased by NOK 12.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 18%.
In the initial half of 2023, Chile observed a minor increase in exports of farmed salmon and trout. Specifically, Chilean exports of salmon and trout amounted to 373,734 tons during H1 2023, indicating a 2% rise compared to H1 2022. While the total value of these exports stood at USD 3.31 billion, representing a 2% increase as well. According to custom data, for Chilean salmon markets, the US market accounted for 56.71% and over half of its value. Brazil emerged as another crucial market, absorbing 7.9% of the exported volume. Although China purchased smaller quantities of Chilean salmon, it experienced notable year-on-year increases: 58% in volume and an impressive 83% in value.
Pink Salmon Export
For China’s pink salmon, the price has come at its bottom level. It appears that the demand for pink salmon in the EU and North America has diminished. And that leads Chinese plants to reduce their purchases despite ongoing inquiries from EU supermarkets. This reduction in demand has coincided with a significant drop in raw material pricing for Russian pink salmon, falling from $4,500 per metric tonne last year to under $2,000, a decline greater than that observed in 2008.
Future Outlook on Salmon Market Trend
From a global perspective, salmon production is slowing increasing. Especially now that the demand has recovered from the COVID-19 period, and it’s gradually exceeding the supply. Salmon markets are expected to witness significant growth in the future, primarily driven by the growing demand. Above all, the global market remains optimistic about the salmon market in the seafood industry.
Ocean Treasure: Your Reliable Supplier in Asia
The marketing team in Ocean Treasure is always keeping an eye on the latest seafood news. We are frozen seafood exporter and full-service provider with customers worldwide. With over 16 years’ experience in seafood industry, we have professional teams to ensure the total quality control, on-time delivery, and multilingual services. Currently, the prices of salmon are very competitive. Contact our professional teams to place your order of salmon. Ocean Treasure: Your Reliable Supplier in Asia.
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