Russia’s rapid expansion in pollock surimi production is entering a new phase. After several years of aggressive growth driven by investment in advanced fishing fleets, the industry is expected to slow for the first time in 2026.
The shift is not due to capacity constraints, but rather a strategic reallocation of raw materials toward higher-margin products such as fish fillets. Market pricing, domestic consumption trends, and global supply dynamics are reshaping the industry’s direction.
From Rapid Expansion to Strategic Adjustment
Since 2021, Russia has significantly increased its production capacity by deploying super trawlers equipped with onboard processing systems.
This enabled a surge in pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) surimi output:
- From just a few thousand tons in 2021
- To approximately 89,000 tons in 2025
- Initially projected to reach 100,000 tons in 2026
However, the latest industry signals indicate a reversal. Major producers are no longer expanding output and are instead planning production cuts.
This marks a critical transition from a market share–driven strategy to a profit-maximization approach.
Higher Fillet Margins Drive Raw Material Diversion
The core driver behind this shift is the widening price gap between pollock products.
- Boneless Alaska pollock fillets exported to Europe are priced nearly $700/ton higher than first-grade surimi
- Both products rely on the same raw material: Alaska pollock
Despite a 13.7% EU tariff on Russian fish fillets, strong European demand continues to support higher returns. This demand is partly driven by supply shortages and elevated prices of traditional whitefish species such as cod.
At the same time, raw material costs are rising:
- Headless and gutted pollock (key surimi input) has reached historical price highs
- Strong demand from China’s processing sector is intensifying competition for supply
As a result, surimi margins are being squeezed, making fillet production a more attractive option.
Domestic Consumption in Russia Reshapes Supply Flow
Another major factor is the transformation of Russia’s domestic seafood market.
With rising incomes and changing consumption habits, demand for convenient, ready-to-eat fish fillets is growing rapidly.
Key data points:
- Domestic fish fillet sales increased by 20% in 2025
- Around 30% of Russia’s pollock catch is now consumed domestically
This trend is diverting a significant portion of high-quality raw materials away from export-oriented surimi production and into domestic processing channels.
Global Trend: Fillets Outcompete Surimi for Raw Materials
This shift is not limited to Russia.
In Alaska, producers are facing the same strategic decision: allocate raw materials to fillets or surimi.
In the 2026 season:
- Both pollock fillet and surimi production declined year-on-year
- Resource allocation is increasingly driven by end-market profitability
This reflects a broader global pattern:
In a tight whitefish supply environment, high-value fillet products are increasingly displacing intermediate products like surimi.
Impact on China and the Global Surimi Supply Chain
For China, the world’s largest pollock processing hub, these developments carry significant implications.
- Reduced Russian surimi output could tighten global supply
- Rising raw material prices will increase processing costs
- Greater volatility in upstream supply may impact production planning
Chinese processors may need to adopt more flexible procurement strategies and adjust product positioning to maintain competitiveness in the short term.
A Structural Shift in the Pollock Market
Russia’s pollock industry is entering a new stage defined by value optimization rather than volume expansion.
Key expectations for 2026:
- Surimi production growth will slow or decline
- Fillet production will continue to capture a larger share of raw materials
- Global surimi supply may tighten
- Price volatility in pollock raw materials is likely to persist
Ultimately, the industry is moving toward a more segmented structure, where end-market demand and product profitability dictate resource allocation.
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