The Vietnamese pangasius market is showing clear signs of upward momentum as September approaches. Industry experts warn that a combination of low fry survival rates, rising breeding costs, and farmers holding back sales will likely push both farmgate prices and export prices higher in the coming weeks.
Low Fry Survival Rate Driving Up Breeding Costs
Unfavorable weather conditions in August—marked by heavy rainfall, unstable water pH, and temperature fluctuations—have caused a sharp decline in pangasius fry survival rates.
According to Le Thi Thuy Trang, sales manager of Siam Canadian Group Vietnam, this has directly increased breeding costs:
“It’s not a good season for restocking. Fry survival is low, and farmers prefer to delay selling fish until they can reach larger sizes and better profits.”
This farmer strategy is creating a tight raw material supply, adding more upward pressure on market prices.
Pangasius Fry Prices Surge Back to Yearly High
In August, pangasius fry prices in Vietnam climbed sharply, with fry sized at 30 per kilogram nearing 40,000 VND/kg—almost matching the peak seen earlier in 2025. Analysts expect tight fry supply to continue through late August, further supporting a September price increase.
Adult Pangasius Market: Shifting Price Trends
The pangasius farmgate market shows mixed signals across different weight categories:
- 800g–1.0kg: Prices increased for the sixth straight week, supported by export demand in the EU and US.
- 1.0–1.2kg: Prices saw a slight decline.
- Above 1.2kg: Prices dropped significantly, as China’s demand for large pangasius weakened.
At the processing level, plants are still relying on their own fish stocks, with ex-factory pangasius prices holding steady at $3.15–3.25/kg. Once these internal stocks are depleted, processors will likely need to purchase more from farmers, which could accelerate market price increases in September.
Export Market Outlook: EU Stable, US Cautious, China Weak
The pangasius export market remains divided by region:
- United States: Despite the July US–Vietnam trade agreement reducing tariffs from 46% to 20%, American importers remain cautious due to high inventories.
- European Union: The EU market is relatively stable, with pangasius export quotations near a three-year high, although still under the annual peak.
- China: Demand remains sluggish, especially for larger fish sizes, creating downward pressure on the >1.2kg category.
September 2025 Forecast: Upward Price Momentum Likely
Several consulting firms predict that Vietnamese pangasius prices will rise in September 2025 due to:
- High fry mortality and breeding costs
- Limited fry supply and delayed restocking
- Farmers’ reluctance to sell at current prices
- Expected processor demand once internal stocks are consumed
This trend could improve profit margins for Vietnamese pangasius exporters while raising procurement costs for international buyers across the US, EU, and China.
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