The pangasius export market is expected to become more active in the third and fourth quarters of 2024, with prices anticipated to adjust upwards by at least 10% compared to current levels. According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), the export value of pangasius has seen a significant increase. In the first quarter of this year, frozen fish fillet products remained the dominant export, comprising 80% of Vietnam’s pangasius market.
As of March 2024, the export value of frozen pangasius fillets/cuts reached $329 million, marking a 5% year-on-year decrease. China and Hong Kong continue to be the largest markets for Vietnamese pangasius, despite a significant drop in export volumes.
In March 2024, exports to China fell by 22%, with the average export price at $1.94/kg, a 1.5% decrease from the end of 2023. The United States, the second largest market for Vietnamese pangasius, also experienced a decline. In February 2024, exports to the U.S. totaled $16 million, down 8% from February 2023. However, due to a significant increase in January 2024, the total value for the first two months of 2024 reached $34 million, a 25% increase over the same period last year. By March 2024, exports to the U.S. continued to decline slightly compared to February 2023. Notably, in the first three months of this year, pangasius exports, including value-added tax (VAT), reached $9 million, a 16% year-on-year increase, representing 2% of total exports. Exports to China, Hong Kong, and the U.S. have shown impressive growth.
In the first quarter of 2024, China and Hong Kong purchased over $305,000 worth of Vietnamese pangasius, a 40% year-on-year increase, while the U.S. imported $559,000, a 449% year-on-year increase. Besides major markets like China, Hong Kong, the U.S., and the European Union, potential smaller markets for Vietnamese pangasius include Thailand, the United Arab Emirates, and Germany. The German market, in particular, is encouraged to focus on developing price-competitive products by 2024 to boost exports. In 2023, Germany consumed $38 million worth of Vietnamese pangasius, a 31% increase compared to 2022. Germany’s main imported frozen fish fillet products were valued at nearly $37 million, a 34% increase from 2022, accounting for 97% of their imports.
VASEP analysis predicts that export prices will rise by about 10%. Although there were positive signs in the first quarter, demand in major markets has not fully recovered. Improvements are expected in the third and fourth quarters, leading to price corrections and increases of at least 10% from current levels. Given rising costs in labor, gasoline, logistics, and other areas, it is crucial for the seafood industry to set appropriate sales prices to meet market demands and gradually increase prices. Experts recommend that companies consider reasonable export prices and adjust them by 5-10% from now until the third and fourth quarters. Reducing corporate inventory pressure will provide an opportunity to increase production and welcome new orders at better prices.
Due to the challenging export conditions starting in 2023, farmers and fish farming companies have adjusted their breeding output and reduced production. Adverse weather conditions have also impacted fish farming, potentially leading to insufficient pangasius raw materials until the end of the year. Experts suggest that merchants adjust production according to market demand to ensure a balanced supply and demand in the upcoming season, while also informing customers about potential raw material shortages towards the year’s end. Gradually increasing sales prices throughout the year and focusing on long-term contracts will be crucial strategies.
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