Despite the impact of economic fluctuations and reduced consumer demand, Vietnam’s Pangasius exports are anticipated to rebound in 2024. Despite a 27% decline in the value of Vietnamese pangasius exports in 2023, market demand is predicted to rise, with the European Union market possibly serving as a highlight. In 2024, the pangasius business hopes to achieve $2 billion in export revenue and 1.7 million tonnes of commercial output, with increases in imports anticipated from traditional customers such as China.
Review of Pangasius Market in 2023
Vietnam’s pangasius exports have demonstrated remarkable endurance and growth in the ever-changing global trade scene, depicting a bright future for the sector at the close of 2023 and the beginning of 2024. In 2023, Vietnam exported seafood valued at 9.2 billion USD, of which 3.5 billion came from prawns, roughly 1.9 billion from pangasius, and 900 million from tuna.
The top five markets for Vietnamese pangasius in 2023 were China and Hong Kong (with a 34% share of exports), ASEAN (15%), the US (11%), the EU (8%), and Brazil (4%).
China-Hong Kong: Keeps Expanding
At 56 million USD, China-Hong Kong showed a noteworthy YoY gain of 15%. Vietnam’s pangasius exports to China benefit from the steady Chinese economy, which saw 5.2% growth in the first nine months of 2023 and is expected to rise by 5% in GDP in 2023, showing stable consumer expenditure.
The United States: Reviving Vietnam Pangasius Exports
The US saw a 32% decrease in pangasius exports in Q3 2023, which is an improvement above the 64% and 58% declines in Q1 and Q2 caused by many major global reasons such war-torn US imports, food price inflation, and large inventories. Forecasts suggest a rebound in Q4 2023 and early 2024 as a result of declining inventories and increased demand for holidays.
Vietnamese Pangasius is Accepted in the EU Market
The European Union had an 11% YoY increase in Pangasius exports in September 2023, suggesting that Vietnamese goods are becoming more and more popular. This encouraging pattern demonstrates the industry’s capacity to satisfy the demanding requirements of the EU market.
Brazilian Market Advances
The Brazilian market is a vital ally in the triumph of Vietnamese Pangasius exports, with steady double-digit growth over three months in Q3 2023. Brazilian consumers find pangasius fillet more enticing because of its reasonable cost, mouth-watering flavour, and high nutritional value despite the ongoing global inflation and international conflicts.
Prospects for 2024
According to the Pangasius Association’s estimate, the nation’s seafood exports are expected to progressively improve in 2024, showing signs of improvement in the latter part of the year. In contrast to the low base revenue of the previous year, export revenue is anticipated to reach 9.5 billion to 10 billion US dollars for the entire year. Furthermore, the sector hopes to attain 5.700 hectares of pangasius cultivation, a commercial output of almost 1.7 million tons, and an anticipated 2 billion USD in export revenue.
According to experts, Vietnam’s pangasius exports are currently doing very well in countries like China, Mexico, Canada, Brazil, and the United Kingdom.
The two biggest export destinations for Vietnamese pangasius will remain to be China and Hong Kong. During the first eight months of the previous year, this market purchased goods from Vietnamese pangasius for 378 million USD. For the Lunar New Year in February, the Chinese market is hoping for at least a slight increase in sales.
The US market, where pangasius exports totaled 184 million USD, ranked second. Compared to the same period in 2022, pangasius exports from the EU surged by double digits to various markets: Sweden saw a 28% increase, Germany saw a 19% increase, and Denmark saw an 18% increase. Japan and Thailand are two more markets that are becoming more significant.
About the most popular items. In addition to pangasius fillets, other Vietnamese by-products like fish balls and dried salmon maw are gaining popularity in countries like Singapore, Malaysia, and the United States.
Challenges for 2024
The director of OFCO Group, an inspection and consulting services organization, Jean-Charles Diener, clarified that there are still some obstacles to be solved due to COVID-19’s lingering adverse effects.
Vietnam received orders from numerous firms during COVID-19, but it was unable to export. Although the price increased since they were only operating at 20% or 25% of their potential to produce food, no containers were running out. Then, all those containers swiftly departed after COVID concluded. Numerous markets, including the US and Europe, were forced to deal with this large supply of pricey pangasius. Since then, the issue has been that the product’s demand has dropped due to the weak economy, leaving dealers with costly stocks.
In general, it appears that the seafood market will begin to rebound in 2024. Customers will, however, favour lower-priced goods like dried shrimp, canned fish, raw fish for canning, and dried fish as long as panga providers continue to get rid of costly supplies.
Ocean Treasure: Constantly Monitoring Pangasius Prices
This week the raw material of pangasius keeps increasing, around 10 cents/kg, which means 20 cents in final products. Prices are expected to stay strong until March. Regarding the coming holiday, factories in Vietnam which also celebrate the Chinese New Year will start their 10-day vacations starting next week. Ocean Treasure urgently advises customers to lock in prices and place orders before the Chinese New Year arrives.
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