The Pacific Saury 2026 season has started with a troubling signal for seafood buyers: catches are currently low, while fish are smaller than expected. Although recent landings in Japan show that catches can improve quickly, current supplier feedback points to tighter availability and potential price pressure as the season develops.
For buyers, the key question is not only whether saury is available. It is whether the right sizes and volumes will remain available as the season develops.
A Slow Start to the 2026 Saury Season
The 2026 Pacific saury season is now underway. Early feedback from suppliers has been cautious, with current catches reportedly low and fish smaller than expected. Suppliers also expect prices to increase in the coming weeks.
Current market feedback suggests that catch levels are at their lowest point since 2023.
There is another worrying signal from the fishing fleet. Some vessels have not yet returned to port because they have not caught enough saury. Instead of completing a normal fishing trip, vessels are staying at sea in search of sufficient catches.
This highlights the difficulty of the current fishing conditions. The issue is not simply the size of individual catches. It can also affect how quickly raw material reaches ports and processing facilities.
The situation follows a weak pre-season outlook. Japan’s Fisheries Research and Education Agency estimated the 2026 Pacific saury resource in fishing areas used by Japanese vessels at around 429,000 tonnes. This was about 61% below the previous year’s estimate.
The forecast pointed to another concern. A large share of the expected catch was likely to consist of smaller fish. Fishing grounds were also expected to be farther offshore. For the frozen seafood market, these factors can create additional sourcing pressure.
For frozen saury, size is an important part of the buying decision. It can affect pack specifications, production planning, and final product costs.
Smaller Fish Could Become a Major Supply Issue
Current supplier feedback points to smaller fish during the early part of the season. Japan’s pre-season outlook also expected the catch to be concentrated around smaller sizes.
This matters because buyers often work with fixed product specifications. A shortage of a particular size can create problems even when overall saury catches improve.
Buyers should therefore monitor more than total catch volumes. Average fish weight, available size ranges, raw material availability, production capacity, export specifications, and supplier quotations will all be important.
For buyers with regular saury requirements, early communication with suppliers can help reduce this risk.
Ocean Conditions Could Add More Uncertainty
Pacific saury are highly migratory fish. They are associated with cooler waters and are sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. Their distribution can change with water temperature and other environmental factors.
The 2026 season is also developing during a strong El Niño event. The U.S. Climate Prediction Center reported on September 10 that El Niño was strengthening. It also put the probability of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter above 90%.
Changing ocean conditions can affect the distribution and migration of pelagic species. However, El Niño should not be treated as the only explanation for the current saury situation. Ocean temperatures, migration patterns, fishing conditions, and the location of fishing grounds all influence saury availability.
For buyers, the practical question is where the fish are and what sizes are being caught.
What Could Happen to Pacific Saury Prices?
Current supplier feedback points to potential price increases. Low catches can reduce raw material availability, while smaller fish can limit certain specifications. Fishing farther offshore can also increase operating costs.
Japan’s pre-season outlook already pointed to lower availability and smaller fish. Market reports have also highlighted concerns about saury prices this season.
However, domestic Japanese prices should not be treated as a direct indicator of frozen export prices. International prices depend on additional factors, including raw material costs, processing costs, freight, exchange rates, demand, and supplier capacity.
For international buyers, supplier offers and availability are more useful indicators.
Should Buyers Secure Pacific Saury Now?
There is no need to panic. However, buyers with regular saury requirements should monitor the market closely. The early season can provide useful signals about supply.
For buyers currently looking to purchase Pacific saury, timing may be important. Current market feedback indicates that better fish weight is expected from October. Buyers looking for larger sizes may therefore benefit from discussing their requirements early and planning around the expected improvement.
At the same time, 2025 catch remains available mainly in smaller grades. This could provide an option for buyers who can work with smaller specifications while waiting for better-weight 2026 fish.
Buyers should confirm their required sizes early and check expected production schedules. If a specific size is essential, waiting may carry additional risk.
Buyers can also discuss alternative sizes or specifications with suppliers. This can provide more flexibility if the preferred size becomes difficult to source.
What Should Buyers Watch Next?
The next few weeks will provide a clearer picture of the 2026 season. Several indicators will be important:
- Catch volumes: Will landings remain low, or improve consistently?
- Fish size: Will larger fish become more available?
- Fishing grounds: Will vessels continue to operate farther offshore?
- Raw material prices: Will current supply pressure translate into higher costs?
- Production: Will factories have sufficient raw material for export orders?
- Ocean conditions: How will changing Pacific conditions affect saury migration?
These developments will help determine whether the current situation is temporary or part of a wider supply trend.
Looking for Frozen Pacific Saury?
Ocean Treasure works with qualified suppliers and provides sourcing support for international seafood buyers.
Contact us info@ocean-treasure.com for current Pacific saury availability, sizes, specifications, and supply options.
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