In week 38 of 2025 (September 15–21), prices for Norwegian Atlantic cod and haddock reached new highs, while Russian seafood exports faced mounting pressure from the U.S. seafood import ban. Tight supply, rising demand, and regulatory changes are reshaping the global cod and haddock market.
Norwegian Cod Prices Hit Record Levels
- 1–2.5kg head-and-gut (H&G) Norwegian Atlantic cod from the Barents Sea rose by $325/ton month-on-month, reaching $9,575/ton.
- Traders believe cod prices could break $10,000/ton before the end of September, driven by extremely limited supply.
- Export availability is expected to remain restricted through the end of 2025.
Russian Cod Prices Show Mixed Trends
- 1–2kg Russian cod increased by $100/ton, trading at $8,600/ton.
- Sellers are pushing “hungry Russian marketing,” hinting at sharp price increases toward year-end. However, actual transaction data shows weaker Russian cod prices than official offers.
- European buyers reported exporting just one batch to China in the past two weeks, with expectations of stronger demand ahead of Christmas 2025.
U.S. Import Ban Reshapes Global Seafood Trade
On August 29, 2025, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) strengthened enforcement of the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). Seafood-exporting countries must now prove compliance with U.S. regulations or lose access to the market.
- Non-compliant countries include Russia, Grenada, Guinea, Haiti, Iran, Namibia, Saint Lucia, Gambia, Togo, and Venezuela.
- From January 1, 2026, seafood processed in China using Russian raw materials will be barred from entering the U.S., removing a major sales channel for Russian cod and haddock.
This policy shift has created a stronger demand outlook for Norwegian seafood, while placing downward pressure on Russian offers.
Norwegian Haddock Benefits from Market Shift
- Norwegian haddock (800g+) surged to $6,450/ton in week 38.
- Meanwhile, Russian haddock (500g–1kg) fell to $5,900/ton, reflecting reduced buyer confidence.
- Scientists recommended an 18% increase in the Barents Sea haddock quota for 2026, though industry sources expect limited trawl catches until March 2026.
Market Outlook
The combination of record Norwegian cod prices, U.S. restrictions on Russian seafood, and quota adjustments in the Barents Sea signal a volatile but favorable market for Norwegian exporters. Meanwhile, Russian suppliers face increasing barriers, particularly in the U.S. and Chinese markets.
Industry experts will be closely watching:
- Whether Norwegian cod exceeds $10,000/ton by the end of September.
- How Chinese buyers respond to reduced access to Russian raw materials.
- The impact of 2026 quota changes on long-term haddock supply.
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