A stronger El Niño is developing in the Pacific, and seafood buyers sourcing giant squid should be paying close attention to the potential impact on giant squid supply.
The World Meteorological Organization reported in September that El Niño is expected to strengthen further in the coming months and is likely to persist through February 2027. NOAA’s latest outlook similarly gives a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the 2026–27 Northern Hemisphere fall and winter.
For the seafood industry, the concern is not simply the weather. Changes in ocean temperature and circulation can affect the distribution and availability of commercially important species, creating uncertainty around giant squid supply.
For buyers of giant squid (Dosidicus gigas), this deserves particular attention.
Why does El Niño matter for giant squid?
Giant squid is closely connected to the environmental conditions of the eastern Pacific, particularly the productive waters off Peru and Chile.
Research has shown that Dosidicus gigas is highly sensitive to changes in ocean conditions. During El Niño events, warmer water and changes in oceanographic conditions can reduce the amount of suitable habitat available to the squid and shift where concentrations are found.
In 2024, El Niño conditions in Peru were associated with a 70% volume reduction in giant squid supply, highlighting how significantly changing ocean conditions can affect availability.
This does not mean that El Niño automatically means there will be no giant squid.
The more important issue for seafood buyers is uncertainty.
When squid distribution changes, fishing grounds can move, catch rates can vary and fishing operations may need to adapt. For processors and importers, that can eventually translate into changes in raw-material availability, sizes, production planning and purchasing conditions.
What could this mean for giant squid supply?
The biggest risk for buyers is not necessarily a sudden disappearance of the resource.
Instead, the potential risks are more gradual:
- Fishing grounds may shift.
- Catch rates may become less predictable.
- Certain sizes may become more difficult to secure.
- Production planning may become more complicated.
- Raw-material availability could vary more between fishing periods.
- Buyers waiting until the market reacts may have fewer purchasing options.
Previous research on giant squid off Peru found that El Niño conditions were associated with a contraction of suitable habitat, while La Niña conditions generally produced more favorable habitat conditions.
This historical relationship does not allow us to predict exactly what will happen during the current event. Every El Niño develops differently.
But it does provide an important reason for buyers to monitor the situation closely.
Why waiting until 2027 could be risky
For companies that regularly purchase giant squid, procurement decisions are often made well before the final product is needed.
Waiting until there is obvious pressure on the market can mean that the most desirable sizes, specifications or production slots have already been committed.
That is why the current situation is better viewed as a planning issue rather than a price prediction.
We cannot say that giant squid prices will definitely rise because of El Niño.
What we can say is that a very strong El Niño increases the importance of monitoring the fishery and planning purchases ahead of potential changes in availability.
For buyers with regular giant squid requirements, securing part of future demand before uncertainty increases can provide greater supply security.
What should giant squid buyers do now?
1. Review your 2026–2027 requirements
If giant squid is an important part of your product range, review expected demand for the coming months rather than waiting until stocks become tight.
2. Secure important specifications early
If you regularly require specific sizes, cuts or packing formats, discuss these requirements with suppliers in advance.
Flexibility becomes more valuable when raw-material availability is uncertain.
3. Ask suppliers about fishing and raw-material conditions
Don’t only ask for today’s price.
Ask about current fishing conditions, raw-material availability, expected production schedules and which specifications may become more difficult to obtain.
4. Avoid relying entirely on spot purchasing
Spot purchasing can work when supply is stable. When environmental conditions are creating greater uncertainty, forward planning can reduce exposure to sudden changes in availability.
The opportunity to act is before the market reacts
The seafood industry does not need to wait for a shortage before responding to a potential supply risk.
The current El Niño forecasts are strong enough to justify closer planning, while ongoing scientific work is specifically examining how ENSO conditions may affect giant squid habitat off Peru.
For buyers, the sensible approach is not to assume the worst, but to prepare for greater uncertainty.
If giant squid is an important product for your business, now is a good time to review your requirements and discuss upcoming supply with your supplier.
At Ocean Treasure, we continue to monitor developments in the giant squid fishery and can help buyers review available specifications and plan their requirements ahead of potential market changes.
Email info@ocean-treasure.com to discuss your giant squid requirements and current availability.
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