Tilapia prices in southern China stayed stable but weak during Week 37 (September 8–14, 2025). Farmgate prices for 500–800g tilapia delivered to processing plants remained unchanged in Guangdong and Guangxi, with only slight increases in Hainan, leaving the overall market under pressure.
U.S. Demand: Small Orders, No Breakthrough
Industry insiders confirmed that while some U.S. orders returned, the volumes remain too small to drive prices upward.
- A Guangdong processor noted: “After long negotiations, U.S. retail buyers placed orders, but the scale is limited and won’t move the market.”
- A Hainan insider added that U.S. inventories are high, retail sales remain sluggish, and Christmas demand is still uncertain.
- Another source confirmed that U.S. buyers are still pushing for lower prices and have yet to place large-scale contracts.
Supply Side: Abundant Stock Keeps Prices Depressed
From the supply perspective, the market expects low tilapia prices to persist until year-end. Heavy seedling restocking in early 2025 has created a sufficient raw material supply, making significant price rebounds unlikely.
“With weak international demand, the current low price level is expected to continue through the year,”
said a Hainan processing executive.
At the same time, quality issues are adding pressure. On September 2, the U.S. FDA issued Import Alert 16-124, highlighting that tilapia from Guangdong Zhanjiang Xinhui Aquatic Food Co., Ltd. contained leucomalachite green, a banned aquaculture substance in both China and the United States.
Industry experts warn that cutting costs at the expense of safety will damage China’s tilapia reputation. Exporters urge farmers to:
- Avoid overstocking
- Adhere to international standards
- Prioritize quality over short-term gains
U.S. Tilapia Market: Prices Steady, Demand Weak
In the U.S. market, wholesale prices for frozen tilapia fillets stayed unchanged in Week 36, following a $0.05/lb drop the week before. Demand remains soft, with:
- Foodservice channels buying limited quantities
- Importers placing cautious orders
With prolonged low prices, many farmers face loss-making conditions, and seedling demand has collapsed after a brief surge in mid-2025.
Tariffs & Trade Tensions: Key Risk Ahead
The 90-day tariff relief period between China and the U.S. expires in November 2025, keeping tariffs at 55%. While lower than extreme levels of 170–240%, these duties continue to erode buyer confidence and restrict export growth.
Meanwhile, the conflict between farmers and processors is intensifying:
- Farmers accuse plants of squeezing prices
- Processors argue that global demand weakness is the real driver of the downturn
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