Recent data from Chinese customs has revealed key trends shaping China’s seafood trade in 2024. The figures show a shift toward higher-value seafood exports, resulting in a substantial increase in the trade surplus. Meanwhile, both domestic consumption and imports have exhibited a weaker-than-expected performance.
Surge in Exports: High-Value Products Take the Lead
China’s seafood exports reached a total of $19.5 billion in 2024, marking a modest 0.5% growth compared to the previous year. However, the volume of exports saw a more significant increase of 12.4%, reaching 4.08 million tons. This growth has largely been driven by a focus on high-value-added products, including processed seafood items such as prepared fillets and frozen squid.
Exports of prepared marinated fish fillets, particularly tilapia, saw impressive growth, with both volume and value rising by 10% and 19%, respectively. Due to its price advantage, tilapia fillet remains a popular choice in Western markets. Meanwhile, while exports of frozen squid and cuttlefish have decreased since their peak in 2022, they continue to be strong performers, with exports growing by 9% year-on-year in 2024.
Decline in Imports and Trade Surplus Expansion
On the import side, China saw a 5.2% decrease in the value of seafood imports, totalling $18.2 billion. The volume of seafood imports also dropped by 3.6%, amounting to 4.5 million tons. This decrease in imports, combined with stronger export growth, contributed to a significant increase in China’s seafood trade surplus, which expanded to $1.3 billion in 2024, up from just $200 million in 2023.
The decline in imports can be attributed to weak domestic demand, influenced by broader economic conditions in China. Nonetheless, certain high-end seafood imports showed resilience. For instance, imports of live crabs increased by 13%, reaching $1.85 billion, while live rock lobster imports surged by 39% to $875 million. The average import prices for both products, however, showed a decrease, reflecting the purchasing power of high-income consumers in China.
Struggles in the Shrimp and Cod Markets
The shrimp market faced challenges in 2024, with imports of frozen shrimp falling by 7%, and the value of these imports decreasing by 15% to $4.45 billion. This is indicative of weak domestic demand and the accumulation of high stock levels.
Similarly, the trade of cod has encountered difficulties, particularly with frozen headless and gutted (H&G) cod. Imports of these products dropped by 10%, totalling 524,000 tons, and the value of cod imports fell by 21% to $545 million. Even with a slight increase in export volumes (up 2% to 194,000 tons), export prices for cod plummeted by 19%, highlighting the struggles faced by the industry.
Trade Risks and Strategic Shifts
China’s seafood industry faces a range of external risks, including geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, and fluctuating production costs. Notably, the imposition of a 25% U.S. tariff on Canadian seafood has created a potential influx of products into China, particularly affecting the lobster trade. This shift could offer opportunities for Chinese seafood processors, but it also highlights the vulnerability of the industry to external pressures.
Additionally, China’s limited deep-sea fishing fleet has prompted domestic processors to seek alternative sources of raw materials. As a result, there has been a significant increase in imports of fresh herring, which could help fill the gap left by declining domestic production.
Outlook for China’s Seafood Trade
Looking ahead, China’s seafood exports are likely to face a mix of challenges and opportunities. While demand in key international markets remains uncertain, some industry insiders predict that exports will recover in the second half of 2024, bolstered by a recovery in global demand and lower shipping costs. However, uncertainties surrounding overseas demand, political tensions, and rising production costs will continue to shape the outlook for China’s seafood trade in the coming months.
In conclusion, China’s seafood industry is undergoing a transformation, with a stronger focus on high-value exports and a continued expansion of the trade surplus. Despite the challenges posed by weak domestic consumption and external factors, the country’s seafood sector remains poised for growth, driven by innovation and global market opportunities.
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