In week 25 of 2026, China’s tilapia raw material prices continued to show weakness, with no significant change in Guangdong and Hainan and a slight decline in Guangxi. From June 15 to 21, delivered prices for 500–800g tilapia remained stable in most southern processing hubs, while Guangxi saw a small decrease of around RMB 0.10/kg.
The overall market remains under pressure due to a combination of factors, including new U.S. tariff uncertainty, cautious purchasing from processing plants, and increased disease risk caused by high summer temperatures.
Higher duties increase landed costs
A key market concern is the latest proposal from the United States Trade Representative (USTR), which suggests additional Section 301 tariffs on imports from multiple economies. Chinese tilapia products could potentially face an extra 12.5% tariff on top of the existing 25% duty. This development has reversed earlier expectations of trade easing and has significantly weakened market confidence.
Because the U.S. remains one of the most important export destinations for Chinese tilapia, any tariff adjustment directly impacts processor profitability. Higher duties increase landed costs for importers, which in turn reduces their willingness to place forward orders. As a result, Chinese processing plants are becoming more cautious in raw material procurement, placing additional downward pressure on pond-side prices.
Farming conditions in southern China
At the same time, farming conditions in southern China are adding further volatility to the market. High temperatures in regions such as Guangdong and Guangxi have increased the incidence of streptococcal disease in tilapia ponds. This has encouraged some farmers to harvest early to reduce risk exposure, temporarily increasing market supply. The result is a short-term imbalance where supply rises while demand remains cautious, preventing any price recovery.
Despite current weakness, the supply outlook for the second half of the year remains uncertain. Industry estimates suggest that fry stocking volumes in the first half of 2026 were down by 40%–50% year-on-year. This means that while current supply appears sufficient, future harvest volumes may tighten significantly if lower stocking translates into reduced production later in the year.
Difficulty in adjusting prices upward
Processing plants across Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan remain cautious. Most companies are prioritizing inventory control and cash flow management rather than aggressive raw material purchasing. Export margins are under pressure due to the combined effects of raw material costs, exchange rates, freight charges, and potential tariff increases. If U.S. buyers resist absorbing higher import costs, Chinese processors will continue to face difficulty in adjusting prices upward.
In contrast, the U.S. tilapia wholesale market has remained relatively stable in Week 24. Importers are mainly focused on replenishing inventory rather than building long-term stock positions. Demand has not collapsed, but procurement remains cautious due to tariff uncertainty and cost volatility.
Market feedback also suggests that earlier downward pressure on prices has eased compared to the first quarter. While selective discounts remain in certain product categories, especially lower-grade or treated fillets, overall pricing has stabilized, reflecting steady end-market consumption.
Outlook: China’s tilapia market remains in a weak price cycle
Looking ahead, the tilapia industry will closely monitor two key factors: first, the final decision on the U.S. Section 301 tariff proposal and whether an additional 12.5% duty will be applied; and second, the impact of reduced fry stocking, which could tighten raw material availability in the second half of 2026.
At present, China’s tilapia market remains in a weak price cycle driven by short-term oversupply, policy uncertainty, and seasonal disease pressure. However, underlying structural risks—especially reduced stocking—suggest that current weakness may not reflect the full picture of supply conditions for the rest of the year.
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