In week 21 of 2026, the price of Russian headed and gutted (H&G) Alaska pollock experienced a short-term correction, but the broader market outlook remains strongly bullish. Fish harvested from the Eastern Sakhalin region entered the spawning season, resulting in lower meat yields and weaker processing quality, which caused CFR China prices for 25cm+ fish to decline by around 4%. However, industry participants widely believe this is only a temporary technical adjustment following a major price surge in the global pollock market. Attention is now shifting toward the Western Bering Sea fishing season, which officially opened on May 15. Buyers are expecting the arrival of higher-quality raw materials in the coming weeks, and market sentiment continues to point toward another round of price increases once new catches enter the supply chain.
Eastern Sakhalin Fish Weakens During Spawning Season
The current market divergence between lower-quality Sakhalin fish and premium Bering Sea fish highlights how sensitive pollock pricing has become to raw material quality amid global whitefish shortages.
VNIRO Forecast Supports Expectations for a Tight Market
On May 19, VNIRO released its forecast for the 2026 summer-autumn season, projecting approximately 500,000 tons of catch in the Western Bering Sea and a total allowable catch (TAC) of 627,000 tons. Although these figures are close to historical averages, supply concerns remain elevated due to weaker production performance in Alaska earlier this year.
US Pollock Prices Break Historic Levels
At the same time, pricing discussions for Alaskan H&G pollock in Season B have reportedly exceeded the historic $3,000/ton level. If finalized, this would establish a new record for Alaska pollock raw materials. The surge is being driven by declining yields in the US A season, where PBO production reportedly fell 18% and H&G production dropped 16%. Reduced production, combined with continued strong demand for whitefish alternatives globally, has pushed premium pollock prices to unprecedented levels.
Chinese Re-Frozen Pollock Fillet Prices Continue Rising
The impact is already spreading through the processing chain in China. Since mid-April, prices for re-frozen PBO pollock fillets produced in China have increased by approximately $400/ton. Processing companies remain cautious about signing large new contracts until the supply and pricing situation for B-season H&G fish becomes clearer. One Chinese processing executive noted that the market is currently in a waiting phase, with neither buyers nor sellers willing to finalize major second-frozen deals until the first large volumes of Bering Sea fish arrive.
Global Whitefish Shortage Supports Higher Pollock Prices
Several broader structural factors continue supporting the upward movement in pollock prices. European demand for pollock has strengthened significantly as cod supplies remain tight and traditional whitefish prices stay elevated. Meanwhile, the appreciation of the Russian ruble—recently reaching around 71.5 rubles per US dollar, the strongest level since 2023—is squeezing export margins for Russian suppliers and encouraging slower sales activity. In the US market, premium pollock fillets are reportedly achieving premiums of $900–$1,000/ton, reflecting the extreme scarcity of high-quality whitefish raw materials worldwide.
A New Global Pollock Price Cycle Is Emerging
Although the market has seen a temporary correction in Russian H&G prices, most industry participants believe the broader trend remains upward. Tight global whitefish supply, rising processing costs, lower Alaskan yields, strong European substitution demand, and currency pressure on Russian exporters are all contributing to a structural upward shift in the global pollock price center in 2026.
As high-quality Bering Sea catches begin entering the market, expectations for renewed price increases across both raw materials and processed pollock products continue to strengthen.
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