The underfishing is mainly attributed to adverse weather conditions and resource protection policies. Multiple storms since late September have grounded vessels, while the NOAA closed key trawl areas on September 25 to protect herring stocks, effectively shortening the fishing season.
Although offshore processing vessels (more mobile than nearshore fleets) are expected to meet most of their quotas, total supply will inevitably tighten, adding upward pressure on prices.
In the Gulf of Alaska, the B-season pollock fishery is also progressing slowly, with catches well below 2024 levels. Industry experts anticipate a larger annual deficit by year-end, reinforcing the current global supply squeeze.
Russian Pollock Prices Stay Firm
Meanwhile, Russian pollock prices remain strong. As of Week 42, CFR China prices for H&G (head-and-gut-free) pollock 25 cm+ are stable at around $1,630/ton, up 0.6% month-on-month. This moderate increase reflects ongoing tight supply, not short-term volatility.
Continued demand from Chinese processors—especially for value-added reprocessed products—is sustaining market strength.Chinese Processing and Global Supply Chain Dynamics
Reports indicate low domestic H&G inventories in China. Large re-frozen fillet contracts with European buyers, signed in May 2025, must be completed before year-end. Due to raw material shortages, spot transactions are now priced above long-term contracts, pushing the overall spot market upward.
Industry participants are closely watching the upcoming Groundfish Forum in Tokyo, Japan, scheduled for next week. The forum will assess pollock price trends for primary and secondary frozen products. Analysts expect another price surge if Alaska’s quota gap is confirmed.
Regulatory Impact: MMPA and EU Tariffs
Policy changes are adding further complexity. From January 1, 2026, the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) will ban imports of products containing Russian pollock, including semi-finished goods processed in China.
In preparation, Chinese processors are increasing purchases to mitigate future disruptions.
In Europe, the 13.7% EU import tariff continues to limit Russian fillet competitiveness. Yet, due to spot shortages, the price gap between Russian and U.S. fillets has narrowed significantly. EU data shows Russian boneless fillet prices up 35% year-on-year, compared to 11% for U.S. fillets.
Market Outlook: Toward a New High-Price Cycle
The global pollock supply chain is entering a structural tightening phase:
- Falling U.S. supply
- Firm Russian prices
- Processing pressure in China
Although weekly fluctuations seem minor, the overall trend is clear:
The pollock industry is moving into a new cycle of high prices and low inventories, where supply shocks in any major producing region could trigger global chain reactions.
· LinkedIn: Ocean Treasure World Foods Limited: Overview | LinkedIn
· Facebook: Ocean Treasure | Facebook
· Instagram: Ocean Treasure | Instagram photos and videos
