The U.S. wholesale whitefish market remained stable in Week 47 (Nov. 17–23), with pricing for Chinese tilapia fillets and Vietnamese pangasius (basa) unchanged week-on-week. Despite tightening supply and rising production costs in origin countries, high U.S. inventories and softer demand continue to absorb upstream pressure.
Chinese Tilapia Market Overview
U.S. terminal prices flat; upstream production under pressure
Imported frozen tilapia fillet prices in the U.S. were steady for another week and remain ~25% lower YoY. Three key drivers continue to shape price trends:
- Excess U.S. cold storage inventory
- Weak Q4 demand
- Slow market rebound following tariff adjustments (55% → 45%)
At the production level in China, pressure continues to intensify. Raw material prices in Hainan fell to the lowest point this year, while Guangdong and Guangxi remain stable but strained. Processing plants are facing historically high stock levels and are prioritizing inventory digestion through December.
Exporters expect raw material prices to stay below RMB 8.0/kg through year-end. Demand recovery linked to tariff reduction is expected to take another 1–2 months.
Vietnamese Pangasius Market Overview
U.S. prices unchanged for 14 straight weeks despite higher regional FOB prices
Pangasius prices in the U.S. market have now remained unchanged for 14 consecutive weeks, as large inventories reduce buyer urgency. However, developments in Vietnam indicate potential future upward pressure:
- September exports: US$181 million (+5% YoY)
- Jan–Sep exports: nearly US$1.6 billion (+9% YoY)
- EU FOB prices: +US$0.40–0.45/kg YoY
However, supply risks are emerging. Fry production has dropped nearly 20%, and recent typhoons have disrupted seed availability. While U.S. imports remain weak (-23% YoY in September), strong demand from CPTPP markets, Brazil, and Thailand has partially offset the decline.
U.S. Import & Inventory Trends
High import volume continues to suppress price volatility
Recent U.S. Census import data illustrates the foundation behind price stability:
| Product | Import Volume (Jan–Aug) | Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Tilapia (China) | 133.5 million lbs | Above 5-year average |
| Pangasius (Vietnam) | 173.7 million lbs | Higher than previous two years |
With solid inventory levels and moderate demand, upward price pressure remains muted through late 2025.
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